Predictable Outcomes

According to William Bowen, Matthew Chingos and Michael McPherson there are patterns of educational attainment at public universities (which happen to educate two-thirds of all full-time students seeking bachelor's degrees). In their rather comprehensive text Crossing the Finish Line: Completing College at America's Public Universities, the authors examined what they argued are four reliable indicators of college success: 1. choice of major; 2. academic performance; 3. time-to-degree; and 4. graduation. Their study included 124,522 students who matriculated as first-time freshmen in fall 1999. Their evidence revealed the following important and useful information (my suggestions are in italics):

• Nearly half (44%) of all withdrawals occur after the second year (therefore universities should consider academic support focused on students starting their junior year and continuing through graduation)



• 3.0 or above grade point average in the first-year of college has a significant impact on graduation rates (therefore student affairs professionals must be keenly aware of their critically important academic function outside of the classroom)



• Raising the student index does not appreciably raise the graduation rate (therefore make all students regardless of academic preparedness feel the high expectation that they must graduate)

These conclusions are but a few proffered by the authors; I purposefully shied away from discussing their findings concerning race/ethnicity and social economic status in graduation rate disparities. I think anyone interested in that type of information should read the text, and daresay you will find it quite enlightening.